Swann vs Ajmal

Is Swann the best spinner in the world? Ajmal doesn’t think so.

Graeme Swann 

Before the start of England’s tour of the UAE, Graeme Swann was lauded as the best spinner in the world after making his Test debut in 2008 December against India in Chennai – A game in which Swann starred on the second day by dismissing Gambhir and Dravid in his first over. Swann was tipped by the spin legend, Shane Warne, to star in the 2010 Ashes in Australia where he said that the off-spinner has the rare skill of producing sharp turn at a fast pace.Swann’s ability to flight and spin the ball sharply has been one of the key to success. 


On the other hand, Ajmal is a completely different bowler than Swann. He carries with him bag full of tricks – Top-spinner, flipper, ‘Doosra’, and now the ‘Teesra’. Unlike Swann, Ajmal doesn’t rely too much on spinning the ball. Instead, he uses the crease and angles intelligently to outsmart the batsmen. Ajmal didn’t have a fairy tale start to his Test career but since then has become smarter with his bowling. His latest achievement being against England in the recently concluded Test in Dubai where he baffled the English batsmen and picked up 10 wickets – his second 10 wicket match haul. 

Saeed Ajmal 

TABLE 1 - Swann v Ajmal Career Stats
	Mts	Wkts	Avg	5wi	10wm	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inngs
Swann	37	157	28.77	11	1	58.4	19.62%	2.34
Ajmal	18	93	27.96	5	2	63.6	19.60%	2.66

The normalized parameters we will use to compare Swann and Ajmal are Average, Strike Rate and two new parameters: Maidens % (Maidens/Overs * 100) and Wickets per innings (Wickets/Innings). So far Swann has played almost twice the number of games as Ajmal and has 64 more Test wickets than Ajmal at a slightly better strike rate. However, Ajmal has a better overall average than Swann and takes slightly more wickets per innings than Swann. They both bowl around the same percentage of maidens.

Lets take a look at these number more closely against all Test playing nations (except Bangladesh and Zimbabwe):

TABLE 2 - Swann & Ajmal vs All Test Playing Nations (excluding Bangladesh)
	Swann	Ajmal	Swann	Ajmal	Swann	Ajmal
	Mdns/Inngs		Wkts/Inngs		Avg
v Aus	4.05	2	1.61	1	40.1	111.5
v Ind	2.83	DNP	1.75	DNP	40.2	DNP
v Eng	n/a	4.29	n/a	3.15	n/a	20.45
v Nz	DNP	7.5	DNP	1	DNP	58.5
v Pak	5.85	n/a	3.71	n/a	14.5	n/a
v SAF	3.57	4	3	1.5	31.3	65.66
v SL	2.66	5.08	2	2.67	23.6	29.34
v WI	6.89	9.25	2.89	4.25	22.15	14.47

Ajmal, only in his 5^th test match, played the Boxing Day test in 2009 against Australia which Australia won by 170 runs and Ajmal took just the 1 wicket of Michael Hussey. As a result he currently has a horrendous record against Australia which Ajmal would want to improve soon. Against South Africa too he has played just one Test Match on a flat track in Dubai which ended in a draw. Ajmal took 3 wickets in that game, dismissing Kallis, Smith and Morkel. He has fared well against West Indies, England and Sri Lanka.

Swann on the other hand has enjoyed bowling against Pakistan, taking 3.71 wickets per innings at an average of 14.5. He has done fairly well against South Africa, Sri Lanka and West Indies, but would like to improve his stats against Australia and India.

These numbers don’t do justice to Swann and Ajmal because they fail to reflect the quality of the batsmen they have dismissed. Table 3 shows the distribution of their wickets based on the batsmen dismissed. Swann is clearly better than Ajmal when it comes to dismissing the top order batsmen.   

TABLE 3 - Batsmen dismissed (norm)
	Top 5 (%)	No.6-7 (%)	No. 8-11(%)
Swann	48.4	19.74	31.86
Ajmal	40.9	18.2	40.9

But is this enough to conclude that Swann is a better bowler than Ajmal?

Swann v Ajmal – At home and away Tests

TABLE 4 - Swann v Ajmal at Home
	Mts	Wkts	5wi	10mw	Avg	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inngs
Swann	20	74	4	0	26.71	50.9	20.2	2.05
Ajmal	5	31	2	1	26.19	59.5	18.2	3.1
TABLE 5 - Swann v Ajmal in Away Games
	Mts	Wkts	5wi	10mw	Avg	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inngs
Swann *	17	83	7	1	30.6	64.3	19.1	2.67
Ajmal	13	62	3	1	28.9	65.7	20.2	2.48

*Swann’s 1^st Test in the UAE is being counted as an Away game

Since the start of his career, Saeed Ajmal didn’t have the luxury of playing at Home in Pakistan. In our analysis we will consider UAE to be Ajmal’s home.At home, Swann and Ajmal average approximately the same with Swann having a slightly better strike rate and a higher maiden percentage. However, it is wickets that matter most in Test cricket and Ajmal takes 1.05 more wickets per innings than Swann at home.

In the away games, Ajmal has a better average and bowls a higher percent of maidens. Swann beats Ajmal marginally when it comes to strike rate and wickets per innings.

It wouldn’t be wrong to conclude that Ajmal is a much better bowler at home, whereas in the away games their performances are almost identical.

Swann v Ajmal – On Asian and Non-Asian Pitches in Tests

TABLE 6 - Swann v Ajmal on Asian Pitches
	Mts	Wkts	5wi	10mw	Avg	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inn
Swann	5	28	2	1	29.53	58.9	18.18	3.1
Ajmal	10	54	2	1	27.14	60.5	18.53	2.7
TABLE 7 - Swann v Ajmal on Non-Asian Pitches
	Mts	Wkts	5wi	10mw	Avg	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inn
Swann	32	129	9	0	28.6	57.62	19.9	2.22
Ajmal	8	39	3	1	29.1	67.9	20.8	2.6

Ajmal has played more games than Swann in Asia and thus has more wickets at a better average. However, Swann takes more wickets per innings in Asia.

On non-Asian pitches, Swann has a slightly better average and strike rate than Ajmal, but Ajmal has a better maiden percentage and wickets per innings ratio.

Lets jump deeper into the mystery of these numbers

TABLE 8 - Batsmen dismissed on Asian Pitches (norm)
	Top 5 (%)	No.6-7 (%)	No. 8-11(%)
Swann	64.2	14.2	21.6
Ajmal	38.9	20.4	40.7
TABLE 9 - Batsmen dismissed on Non- Asian Pitches (norm)
	Top 5 (%)	No.6-7 (%)	No. 8-11(%)
Swann	45	20.9	34.1
Ajmal	43.6	15.4	41

Even though Ajmal has a better average on Asian pitches, majority of his wickets are of the tail-enders (40.7%). Swann on the other hand has a large chunk of the top order wickets (64.2%). It can be argued that two out of the five games Swann has played in Asia were against Bangladesh where he picked up 16 wickets including a 10 wicket haul. So I leave it up to the reader to decide who is a better spinner on Asian pitches.

Swann beats Ajmal again when it comes to toppling the top order on non-Asian pitches even though Ajmal has a higher wickets per innings ratio. There is no doubt that on any pitch the lower order batsmen are clueless against Ajmal’s wizardry. Once again we would leave it up to the readers to decide who is a better bowler on non-Asian pitches based on these numbers.

Swann v Ajmal – in games won and lost (Test)

TABLE 10 - Swann v Ajmal in Games won
	Mts	Wkts	5wi	10mw	Avg	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inngs
Swann	20	96	8	1	23.46	48	20.8	2.52
Ajmal	7	44	2	1	19.93	49.8	25.2	3.14

TABLE 11 - Swann v Ajmal in Games lost
	Mts	Wkts	5wi	10mw	Avg	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inngs
Swann	6	19	0	0	33.15	56.3	12.3	2.44
Ajmal	7	32	3	1	29.9	64.5	17.44	2.67

Ajmal has performed exceptionally well in the games won by Pakistan. He averages below 20, bowls a high percentage of maidens (25.2%) and takes more than 3 wickets per innings. In fact, his stats are decent even in the games Pakistan lost. Note that so far in the games Ajmal has played at home (UAE), Pakistan has not lost any. In the seven games Pakistan lost, Ajmal has done well taking 5 wickets thrice and 10 wickets once (against West Indies). Whereas Swann averages 23.46 in the games won and 33.15 in the games lost. There is not much difference in his wickets per innings ratio for the games won and lost.

Lets dig more into these numbers

TABLE 12 - Swann v Ajmal in Games won at Home
	Mts	Wkts	5wi	10mw	Avg	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inngs
Swann	14	60	4	0	22.53	42.82	28.3	2.3
Ajmal	4	27	1	1	14.37	42.07	26.4	3.38
TABLE 13 - Swann v Ajmal in Games won at Away
	Mts	Wkts	5wi	10mw	Avg	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inngs
Swann	6	36	4	1	25.02	57.3	21.8	3
Ajmal	5	26	0	0	25.65	61.6	23.6	2.6

TABLE 14 - Swann v Ajmal in Games lost Home
	Mts	Wkts	5wi	10mw	Avg	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inngs
Swann	2	7	0	0	26	53.1	27.4	2.33
Ajmal	Have not lost at home (UAE) yet
TABLE 15 - Swann v Ajmal in Games lost at Away
	Mts	Wkts	5wi	10mw	Avg	SR	Mdns %	Wkts/Inngs
Swann	4	12	0	0	37.33	58.67	4.2	2
Ajmal	7	32	3	1	29.9	64.5	17.44	2.67

Ajmal outperforms Swann in the games won at home – 3.38 wickets per innings at an average of 14.37, whereas Swann takes 2.3 wickets per innings at an average of 22.53.
However, in the games won away, Swann has done better – taking 3 wickets per innings along with four 5 wicket hauls and one 10 wicket haul. Ajmal has done a little better in the games lost away – taking 2.67 wickets per innings at an average of 29.9. Whereas Swann averages above 37 and his maidens percentage is extremely low.

Swann v Ajmal – Match and Series Awards in Tests

So far Ajmal has won 2 Man of the Match awards against Sri Lanka and England in Dubai and 2 Man of the Series award against West Indies in West Indies and against Sri Lanka in UAE.
Swann has won 5 Man of the Match awards and 2 Man of the Series award South Africa and Bangladesh. 

So who do you think is the better, the number 1 spinner in cricket at the moment? Let us know ! 

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