England Batsmen vs Pakistan Bowlers - 2012 ODIs ~ Cricketing Minds

On 13^th Feb when Gul runs in to bowl, what are the chances of him dismissing Cook? What are the chances of Cook getting bowled or LBW?

This week Cricketing Minds has taken a slightly different approach towards statistical analysis and compiled tables which would list out the probability of each Pakistan bowler dismissing an English Batsman and the mode of their dismissal.

So when you’d be watching the game live secretly in college or office cubicle or while relaxing on your couch, you can use these tables to predict the fall of wickets and mode of dismissals.

Part 1 - England Batsmen v Pakistan Bowlers

TABLE 1: % Chance of Eng Batsman being dismissed by different type of Pak Bowlers
Eng Batsmen	RF (Gul, Cheema, Azam)	RS (Ajmal, Afridi, Hafeez, Malik)	LF (Riaz, Junaid)	LS (Rahman)	RunOut
Cook	28.57	33.33	33.33	4.76	0
Kieswetter	62.5	12.5	0	25	0
Pietersen	28.57	21.43	7.17	35.71	7.14
Trott	36.36	36.36	0	27.27	0
Bopara	33.33	40	6.67	20	0
Morgan	62.5	37.5	0	0	0
Bresnan	55.56	44.44	0	0	0
Broad	16.67	50	16.67	0	16.67
Bairstow	0	0	0	100	0
Patel	37.5	37.5	12.5	12.5	0

TABLE 2: % Chance of getting Bowled, Caught, Stumped, LBW or Runout
Eng Batsmen	Bowled	C.Other	C.Wk	Stumped	LBW	RunOut
Cook	6.5	42.28	29.27	0.81	21.14	0
Kieswetter	29.63	33.33	14.81	3.7	18.52	0
Pietersen	19.59	55.67	9.28	2.06	9.28	4.12
Trott	34.29	42.86	8.57	2.86	8.57	2.86
Bopara	20.75	41.51	5.66	3.77	22.64	5.66
Morgan	5.17	60.34	17.24	5.17	6.9	5.17
Bresnan	34.38	37.5	6.25	3.13	9.38	9.38
Broad	21.88	46.88	12.5	3.13	3.13	12.5
Bairstow	25	75	0	0	0	0
Patel	18.18	54.55	9.09	9.09	9.09	0

The first table shows the “Percentage chance of each English Batsman being dismissed by different types of Pakistani Bowlers”. We have compiled these numbers using the number of times the English batsmen have been dismissed by different types of bowlers in Asia.

Table 2 shows the “Percentage chance of each English Batsman getting Bowled, Caught Behind, Caught (fielder), Stumped, LBW or Run-out”. These numbers have been compiled using the number of times each English Batsman has been bowled, caught, stumped, LBW or run-out.

But let’s dig deeper into these numbers and try combining the above two tables together to find out the chances of each England batsmen getting bowled or LBW or Stumped by different Pakistan bowlers.

Based on the following probabilities, we can possibly devise strategies to dismiss each batsman.

Table 3: % Chance of Eng Batsman being BOWLED by different type of Pak Bowlers
Eng Batsmen	RF (Gul, Cheema, Azam)	RS (Ajmal, Afridi, Hafeez, Malik)	LF (Riaz, Junaid)	LS (Rahman)
Cook	4.88	0.00	1.63	0.00
Kieswetter	22.22	0.00	0.00	7.41
Pietersen	10.31	4.12	2.06	3.09
Trott	17.14	14.29	0.00	2.86
Bopara	11.32	5.66	0.00	3.77
Morgan	3.45	1.72	0.00	0.00
Bresnan	25.00	3.13	3.13	3.13
Broad	9.38	3.13	9.38	0.00
Bairstow	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00
Patel	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00

TABLE 4: % Chance of Eng Batsman being CAUGHT(Fielder) by different type of Pak Bowlers
Eng Batsmen	RF (Gul, Cheema, Azam)	RS (Ajmal, Afridi, Hafeez, Malik)	LF (Riaz, Junaid)	LS (Rahman)
Cook	26.02	8.94	2.44	4.88
Kieswetter	18.52	3.70	3.70	7.41
Pietersen	25.77	16.49	2.06	11.34
Trott	17.14	11.43	5.71	8.57
Bopara	20.75	11.32	7.55	1.89
Morgan	39.66	15.52	3.45	1.72
Bresnan	28.13	6.25	3.13	0.00
Broad	25.00	6.25	9.38	6.25
Bairstow	0.00	0.00	0.00	75.00
Patel	18.18	27.27	9.09	0.00

TABLE 5: % Chance of Eng Batsman being CAUGHT(WK) by different type of Pak Bowlers
Eng Batsmen	RF (Gul, Cheema, Azam)	RS (Ajmal, Afridi, Hafeez, Malik)	LF (Riaz, Junaid)	LS (Rahman)
Cook	22.76	1.63	4.07	0.81
Kieswetter	11.11	0.00	3.70	0.00
Pietersen	6.19	1.03	2.06	0.00
Trott	5.71	2.86	0.00	0.00
Bopara	3.77	1.89	0.00	0.00
Morgan	12.07	3.45	1.72	0.00
Bresnan	0.00	3.13	3.13	0.00
Broad	6.25	0.00	3.13	3.13
Bairstow	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Patel	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09

TABLE 6: % Chance of Eng Batsman being LBW by different type of Pak Bowlers
Eng Batsmen	RF (Gul, Cheema, Azam)	RS (Ajmal, Afridi, Hafeez, Malik)	LF (Riaz, Junaid)	LS (Rahman)
Cook	8.94	5.69	6.50	0.00
Kieswetter	14.81	0.00	0.00	3.70
Pietersen	5.15	0.00	0.00	4.12
Trott	5.71	2.86	0.00	0.00
Bopara	13.21	5.66	0.00	3.77
Morgan	1.72	1.72	1.72	1.72
Bresnan	6.25	3.13	0.00	0.00
Broad	0.00	3.13	0.00	0.00
Bairstow	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Patel	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00

TABLE 7: % Chance of Eng Batsman being STUMPED by different type of Pak Bowlers
Eng Batsmen	RF (Gul, Cheema, Azam)	RS (Ajmal, Afridi, Hafeez, Malik)	LF (Riaz, Junaid)	LS (Rahman)
Cook	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.81
Kieswetter	0.00	3.70	0.00	0.00
Pietersen	0.00	2.06	0.00	0.00
Trott	5.88	0.00	0.00	0.00
Bopara	0.00	1.89	0.00	1.89
Morgan	0.00	3.45	0.00	1.72
Bresnan	0.00	3.13	0.00	0.00
Broad	0.00	3.13	0.00	0.00
Bairstow	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Patel	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00

STRATEGIES:

1 – COOK: has 33.33% chance of getting out to right arm spinners (RS) and left arm fast bowlers (LF). So Misbah should play either one of Junaid or Riaz if he wants to send Cook back to the pavilion soon. Also, it would nott be a bad idea to introduce spin early with Hafeez or Ajmal to expose Cook’s weakness against spin.

2 – Pietersen: will be opening in this ODI series according to coach Andy Flower. His weakness against left arm spinner (LS) is very well known. Stats also show that LS has 35.71% chance of getting him out. Plan B for Pietersen could be to make the right arm fast bowlers (RF) bowl a teasing line around off stump since Pietersen has 28.57% chance of getting out to a RF.

3 – Kieswetter: If Kieswetter comes early, it would be best to attack him with Gul or Cheema. He has 62.5% chance of getting out to a RF bowler. It would be a good idea to not give him any width outside off and bowl on the stumps – since RF bowlers have 22.22% chance of getting Kieswetter bowled (See Table 3).

4 – Trott: has 36.36% of getting out to a RF and RS. If Misbah has to get rid of Trott early, it would be wise to trouble him with Ajmal or Afridi’s wizardry. Other than getting caught by a fielder, Trott has a 34.3% chance of getting bowled. So Gul, Ajmal, Afridi and Cheema should cramp him for room and aim for the stumps to dismiss Trott.

5 – Bopara: plays for the English middle order and comes in to bat when the Pakistani spinners are operating. He has 40% chance of getting out to a RS and besides getting caught by a fielder, Bopara has a high chance of getting LBW (22.64%) and bowled (20.75%).

6 – Morgan: has a high chance of getting out to a RF (62.5%). Since he is an attacking player and loves to play his shots, it is very likely Morgan will out caught by a fielder. Misbah & Co. should be ready to grab any catching opportunity presented to them by Morgan.

7 – Bresnan: has a 55.56% chance of being dismissed by RF and 44.44% chance of being dismissed by a RS. Like Morgan, Bresnan too is most likely to get caught out by a fielder. This is probably because Bresnan bats lower down the order and usually comes in to bat when England are trying to accelerate at the end of their innings.

8 – Broad: is very weak against the spinners and would most likely get out to the spin trio (Ajmal, Afridi and Hafeez) since he has been dismissed by a right arm spinner 50% of the times in Asia. Broad too has been dismissed caught by a fielder most of the times in his career and hence even on 13^th Feb, when Broad would face Pakistan, he’d be out caught most likely.

9 – Bairstow: has been dismissed only 4 times so far and all the times he was out to Ravindra Jadeja and hence stats show that he is most likely to get dismissed by a LS. If Misbah & Co. go by history, they’d be tempted to play Rahman to make sure Bairstow is trapped once again by a LS.

10 – Patel: is equally vulnerable to a RF and RS (37.5%). Patel did strike the ball pretty cleanly against India last year and was dismissed caught by a fielder most of the times. Hence the stats show that Patel would also get caught out by a fielder most likely.