Why Team India should watch out for Pakistan

All these head breaking, ball biting, toe crushing, stump shattering, trust breaking, ball tampering and chucking players only have one agenda in life - to destroy the Indian team.

Analyzing Pakistan's preparation for the T20 World Cup

With the selection done and final 15 decided, what are the leaks and creaks that the team might have to counter?

Pakistan's deadlock situation

When will this wicket-keeper dilemma get resolved? Why has the management not been consistent with the team selection?

Who is the best finisher in ODI Cricket?

This time, it is upto you to decide who the best finisher in ODI cricket is amongst the best - Bevan, Dhoni, Klusener or Hussey, we are just gonna put up the numbers.

VVS Laxman - Very Very Special or Very Very Over-rated

The true question, however, is that should Laxman be considered as a batting great of his generation? Here at CricketingMinds, we believe that Laxman is just an average batsman in the context of other great players, and we have the numbers to prove it.

Swann vs Ajmal - Who is better?

Swann's ability to flight and spin the ball sharply has been one of the key to success. On the other hand, Ajmal is a completely different bowler than Swann. He carries with him bag full of tricks - Top-spinner, flipper, 'Doosra', and now the 'Teesra'.

Showing posts with label Pakistan vs England. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pakistan vs England. Show all posts

Thursday, 23 February 2012

Pakistan vs England - ODI Review

My dad often says that life is never a constant; that it is a series of successes and failures. One day you win, the other day you may not. However, the key is not to panic when you fail. Rather, look back at your actions and learn from your mistakes.  It is unforgivable that a failure is not taken as an opportunity for improvement.

England’s tour of UAE has been an excellent reminder of the lesson that dad always taught me. After a 3-0 whitewash in the test series, no cricket pundit gave England a chance in the ODIs.  The odds were stacked heavily against them. England took this as an opportunity to re-assess their game and played with more resolve and determination to come out on top as the better side.



Most experts suggest that a team is the embodiment of their coach’s personality. All great men fight harder when the going gets tough and good coaches have the skill to instill in their players the confidence and willingness to win. No other team is a better example of this than England.


Ever since Mohsin Khan has taken over as Pakistan’s coach, Pakistan has tasted success. But the real test of a coach is when his soldiers are down, wounded and shattered in confidence. This is a testing time for Mohsin Khan and Misbah ul Haq. Imran Khan would probably tell you the same: A great leader is one who has the ability to stand up and fight, especially when the chips are down.


It is true that Pakistan were beaten by England in every department: batting, bowling, fielding and most importantly captaincy. But it is important to analyze every aspect of Pakistan’s defeat to learn why England did well and why Pakistan surrendered so easily.  


This week Cricketing Minds has analyzed the 4-0 whitewash of the Pakistan team against England. 

Batting
The graphs below show the total runs Pakistan and England scored and total wickets lost in different stages of the game.



  
England dominated the first 10 overs by scoring 203 runs for the loss of just 1 wicket in the 4 ODIs combined at 5.075 runs per over. Once known as the best in the business for picking up early wickets, Pakistan are now struggling in the fast bowling department. England on the other hand has found an excellent opening partner in Pietersen for Cook. 
During the same stage of the game, English bowlers were able to pick up 8 Pakistani wickets at a cost of 169 runs only. It matters less that 4 of these wickets came in the first ODI itself and Finn was the chief destroyer, picking up 6 of these wickets. Once again that shows how superior the English fast bowlers performed compared to their counterparts when it came to utilizing the new ball.
Surprisingly Pakistan did slightly better than England between overs 11-20 where Pakistan scored 7 less runs but more importantly lost 3 less wickets too.
This is the stage when Misbah employed his strike bowlers Afridi and Ajmal who were able to contain England and also pick up wickets. But Pakistan was unable to maintain the pressure in the next stage.
In ODIs, the most important phase of the game is the middle stage (Overs 21-35) where a game is usually decided. Unfortunately for Pakistan they lost 12 wickets during this stage of the game which had a major impact on their runrate as well. England on the other hand mastered the middle stage play with the bat by scoring over 300 runs for the loss of just 2 wickets at 5.02 RPO.

For Pakistan to win ODI games, their batsmen have to put a higher price on their wickets and place an importance of occupying the crease during these middle overs. Their only decent performance during this stage of the game came in the 3
rd ODI when they scored 68 runs for the loss of only 1 wicket.  
Because Pakistan had already made a mess of their batting by the end of the 35
th over, the following stages mattered less because by the start of the 36th over (mostly with the batting powerplay) Pakistan would be at least 4 wickets down already. [Breakdown of Pak’s scores at the end of 35th over: 130/10, 151/4, 157/5 and 153/4].
Entering the batting powerplay and last 10 overs with 4-5 wickets down restricts the batsmen to play their shots and not make the best use of the fielding restrictions. Hence, only two things can happen as a result: (i) Your batsmen play too many shots to accelerate and lose wickets as a result OR (ii) Play defensive cricket and let the run rate to drop even further which puts extra pressure to accelerate during last 10 overs.
The best way to counter this problem would be to keep at least 7-8 wickets in hand when entering the last 15 overs. Which is exactly what England did and hence they were successful throughout. [Breakdown of Eng’s scores at the end of 35th over: 169/2, 154/2, 203/1 and 158/4].

Analysis of boundaries hit



This table shows the % of runs scored in boundaries by each batsman.  It must be a shame for Umar Akmal to sit at the bottom of this table despite being known for his aggressive nature. I am not surprised to see Malik and Misbah at the bottom as well. Malik has not been able to middle the ball ever since his forceful comeback. Misbah on the other hand needs to find innovative ways to score more boundaries and rotate the strike in ODIs rather than his usual ‘tuk-tuk’. Defensive play may bring him success in Tests, but Mohali 2011 should have been a lesson for him that the ‘tuk-tuk’ strategy mostly fails in ODIs. 

Partnerships


Partnerships are crucial in any format of cricket. I am not sure why the Pakistan batsmen fail to acknowledge the importance of partnerships in ODIs. Pakistan’s best partnership came in the last ODI when Azhar Ali and Asad Shafiq added 111 for the 2nd wicket. What is noteworthy here is that there were only 4 50+ partnerships for Pakistan during the 4 ODIs. Whereas, England had 9 50+ partnerships. 

 Analysis of Extras Conceded



 
Ajmal has been Pakistan’s standout bowler. But if there is some area of improvement for him then that is ‘extras’. World's No 1 ODI Bowler will not be proud of being at the top of this list.
Pakistan’s fast bowlers’ lack of ability to pick up early wickets has already been mentioned as a reason for concern. But they also need to work on their wides and no-balls, especially Wahab Riaz who conceded 5 extras in just 7 overs. 

Analysis of Maidens bowled


 
This table shows the percentage of maidens bowled by the Pakistani and English bowlers during the 4 ODIs. The top four slots are occupied by the English bowlers. This shows that despite favorable conditions the Pakistani bowlers were unable to choke the English batsmen by drying up the runs. The strategy of containing opposition batsmen and drying up the flow of runs was successful against Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh last year. However, against quality batsmen such as Cook, Pietersen and Trott this strategy was clearly difficult to implement. Hence, Pakistan needs to think of other strategies to pick up wickets. 

Other interesting stats



Pakistan averaged 20.48 runs per wicket and 27.6 balls per wicket which is extremely poor and reflects inconsistency and the fact that the batsmen were unable to build partnerships. England should be commended for their efforts with the ball throughout the 4 ODIs.
Pakistan can take pride in dropping fewer catches than England. Umar Akmal dropped Cook off Afridi in the 2nd ODI and Azhar Ali dropped Pietersen in the 3rd ODI. Both of them went on to score match winning centuries. Umar Akmal also missed a stumping chance of Bopara in the 1st ODI who went on to build a century partnership with captain Cook.
England dropped 5 catches: Patel dropped Afridi in the 1st ODI. Broad couldn’t hold on to a tough chance offered again by Afridi in 2nd ODI. Kieswetter did an Akmal when he dropped Umar Akmal in 3rd ODI. Cook and Pietersen were guilty of dropping Rahman and Misbah in the last ODI. 

Conclusion

Pakistan failed to perform with the bat, ball and most importantly with the mind. Perhaps, Misbah can learn from Jayawardne who is being appreciated and rewarded for his aggressive captaincy and field settings despite having weaker bowling resources.
Here is something for your food for thought: It were these same English batsmen who struggled on the same surface against the same bowlers a few days ago when the field was up. So what changed during these few days?
The answer to that question in my opinion is “defensive captaincy”. Feel free to share your opinion with us and the answer to the above food for thought question.

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Monday, 13 February 2012

Pakistan batsmen vs England bowlers - 2012 ODIs

In Part 1: we used numbers to calculate the probabilities of English batsmen being dismissed by various Pakistani bowlers and their modes of dismissals.

Now we use the same methodology to do a Pak Batsmen v Eng Bowlers analysis.

(NOTE: England doesn’t have a Left arm Fast bowler (LF) in their ODI squad and hence there is no column for a LF in these tables)

Sunday, 12 February 2012

England Batsmen vs Pakistan Bowlers - 2012 ODIs


On 13th Feb when Gul runs in to bowl, what are the chances of him dismissing Cook? What are the chances of Cook getting bowled or LBW?

This week Cricketing Minds has taken a slightly different approach towards statistical analysis and compiled tables which would list out the probability of each Pakistan bowler dismissing an English Batsman and the mode of their dismissal.

So when you’d be watching the game live secretly in college or office cubicle or while relaxing on your couch, you can use these tables to predict the fall of wickets and mode of dismissals.

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

Matt Prior



Matt Prior, undoubtedly England's most improved batsmen. He has produced a century in each of his last 4 test series.  He has remained notout 5 times in his last 21 innings including 2 not out centuries against Pakistan and India in England.
He averages above 55 during this time period.

He has been dismissed many times while accelerating England's innings - produced upper cuts to be caught at point, gully or by the keeper. Or slogs towards midon or midoff region.



   Prior's Last 21 Innings 
Dismissal Total %
C. Wk     6 37.5
C. Slip    0 0
C. Other    4 25
LBW    1 6.25
Bowled    3 18.75
Runout    2 12.5


                                                  Prior's Last 21 Innings 
Dismissal Bowler Type Total C.Wk C.Slip C.Other LBW Bowled
Left Arm Fast/Med Fast 2 2 0 0 0 0
Right Arm Fast/Med Fast 9 4 0 3 0 2
Right Arm Off Break 1 0 0 0 1 0
Right Arm Leg Break 1 0 0 1 0 0
Left Arm Spin 1 0 0 0 0 0


He has been dismissed 9 out of 16 times by a right arm fast bowler in his previous 21 innings.  This shows that may be Pakistan can use Gul's services to get rid of Matt Prior.

Prior scored 2 very useful 50's agains SL in Kandy and Colombo when Muralitharan was playing. He was dismissed by Muralitharan twice but it shows that Prior has the capability to play useful knocks at the number 7 position against quality spinners on spinning tracks.

Prior's 11 Innings in Asia 
Dismissal Total %
C. Wk     1 12.5
C. Slip    0 0
C. Other    4 50
LBW    0 0
Bowled    3 37.5


                                                            Prior's 11 Innings in Asia
Dismissal Bowler Type Total C.Wk C.Slip C.Other LBW Bowled
Left Arm Fast/Med Fast 1 0 0 0 0 1
Right Arm Fast/Med Fast 2 0 0 2 0 0
Right Arm Off Break 3 1 0 1 0 1
Right Arm Leg Break 0 0 0 0 0 0
Left Arm Spin  2 0 0 1 0 1


HOW TO GET HIM OUT?

Plan A: Gul bowling in the good length channel and inducing edges to wicketkeeper or slips.

Plan B: Prior is an aggresive player so it wouldn't be a bad idea to contain Prior and stop him from scoring freely against the spinners. Ajmal and Rahman can use their variations to get Prior out.


Eoin Morgan




Eoin Morgan has all the qualities to cause troubles for Pakistan. He did score a 100 against Pakistan in 2010 at Trent Bridge. He is attacking, he is innovative, he is a stroke-maker. However, on many occasions he has thrown his wicket away.

His weakness is against the ball moving away  from a good length where he has edged it to the keeper or slips 7 times.

  Morgan's Last 16 Innings 
Dismissal    Total %
C. Wk       6 40
C. Slip      1 6.6666667
C. Other      3 20
LBW      3 20
Bowled      1 6.6666667
Runout      1 6.6666667


                                                                Morgan's Last 16 Innings 
Dismissal Bowler Type Total C.Wk C.Slip C.Other LBW Bowled Stumped
Left Arm Fast/Med Fast 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Right Arm Fast/Med Fast 10 5 0 2 3 0 0
Right Arm Off Break 2 0 0 1 0 1 0
Right Arm Leg Break 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Left Arm Spin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


He has played the spinners well in tests in England but it would be interesting to see him bat against quality spinners outside of England for the first time.


HOW TO GET MORGAN OUT?

Plan A: Gul bowling a good length delivery on the leg stump and move it away from Morgan. Depending on how much the ball moves Morgan can either nick it behind the stumps or miss the ball to get LBW.

Plan B: One of Morgan's favorite shot is the inside out cover drive. If Ajmal, Hafeez or Rahman can deceive him with the flight the can get him out when he is trying to play uppishly through the covers

Plan C:  Hafeez is excellent to the left handers. Bowl hafeez from one end and make him bowl wicket to wicket to get LBW or bowled.  


Ian Bell

Bell will be one of the biggest threats - not only because of his formidable form but also due to his amazing stats against Pakistan.  He has played 7 matches against Pakistan and scored 4 hundreds at a staggering average of 68.80.



 In Asia his average has dipped, courtesy quality spin bowling which Bell has not had the opportunity  to play against in a long time, but it is still a healthy 44.13. Bell was Muralitharan's bunny with Muralitharan having his wicket 5 times in 3 test matches (the 6th time he was runout).  So it can be said that Ajmal who is in the top bowling ranks, will definitely be a high contender to get Bell out, and Hafeez might be a close second. Bell has shown comfort against left arm spin so Rehman might not threaten him as much.



     Bell in his last 16 Innings 
Dismissal   Total %
C. Wk      3 25
C. Slip     5 41.667
C. Other     1 8.333
LBW     2 16.667
Bowled     1 8.333



                                                                 Bell in his Last 16 Innings 
Dismissal Bowler Type Total C.Wk C.Slip C.Other LBW Bowled Stumped
Left Arm Fast/Med Fast 3 0 2 1 0 0 0
Right Arm Fast/Med Fast 6 3 1 0 1 1 0
Right Arm Off Break 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Right Arm Leg Break 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Left Arm Spin  2 0 2 0 0 0 1


In the middle east, spinning tracks will challenge Bell who has not played on such a surface in almost the last 2 years - he played in Australia and England where the tracks were bouncy and pacy. He has a tendency to be adventurous outside his off stump - hence a good candidate for a bowler like Gul, to extract an edge.

  Bell's 25 Innings in Asia 
Dismissal     Total %
C. Wk         6 24
C. Slip        1 4
C. Other        9 36
LBW        2 8
Bowled        4 16
Runout        1 4




                                                                 Bell's 25 Innings in Asia
Dismissal Bowler Type Total C.Wk C.Slip C.Other LBW Bowled Stumped
Left Arm Fast/Med Fast 2 1 0 0 1 0 0
Right Arm Fast/Med Fast 5 2 0 1 1 1 0
Right Arm Off Break 7 0 1 4 0 2 0
Right Arm Leg Break 6 3 0 2 0 1 0
Left Arm Spin  2 0 0 2 0 0 0


HOW TO GET BELL OUT:

Plan A: Bell has a fair record in Asia but whenever exposed to quality spin, he has been deceived frequently - in the past, it was Kumble and Muralitharan who got him out; it  might not be wrong to instil a close field around the bat off Ajmal's bowling. 
Plan B: Gul's outswingers will come in handy with the new ball as Bell in recent times has been a candidate to getting caught behind the wicket - in his last 16 innings which include 4 not outs, he has been dismissed 9 times by fast bowlers and 6 times it has been behind the wicket. If Pakistan hold on to the catches in the slip then they might see the back of Bell quickly. 

Kevin Pietersen



Without doubt KP is one of the most destructive batsmen going around in cricket these days. He can single handedly take the game away from any opposition if he stays at the crease for 2 or more sessions.

KP is the most experienced English batsmen in the current setup. He has played the most games in Asia against all 4 Test playing Asian team and has a healthy average of almost 41 here, along with 2 centuries  (vs Pak in 2005 and vs Ind in 2008) and a 99 vs Bangladesh in 2010. 

KP is a good player of both spin and fast balls. However, he has struggled against the left arm spinners: dismissed 4 times by the left arm spinner in Asia and thrice in his last 23 innings which were played outside Asia.
                              KP In Asia 
MatchesRunsHSAvg 100s
1394214440.95   2



If only Pakistan has Mohammed Asif, they would not worry too much about Pietersen. But Asif is not playing anymore and KP will be very happy about that.

KP has been dismissed by right arm fast bowlers 11 times in his last 22 innings which were all played in England or Australia. However, even in Asia KP has been dismissed by the right arm fast bowlers 9 times. Spinners have got him 12 times in Asia.


            KP's Last 22 Innings 
Dismissal    Total %
C. Wk      6 28.57143
C. Slip     4 19.04762
C. Other     4 19.04762
LBW     4 19.04762
Bowled     3 14.28571



                                                                             KP's Last 22 Innings 
Dismissal Bowler Type Total C.Wk C.Slip C.Other LBW Bowled Stumped
Left Arm Fast/Med Fast 4 2 0 1 1 0 0
Right Arm Fast/Med Fast 11 4 3 1 2 1 0
Right Arm Off Break 3 0 0 2 0 1 0
Left Arm Spin  3 0 1 0 1 1 0



     KP's 23 Innings in Asia 
Dismissal   Total %
C. Wk      4 17.3913
C. Slip     2 8.695652
C. Other    10 43.47826
LBW     4 17.3913
Bowled     3 13.04348


                                                                  KP's 23 Innings in Asia
Dismissal Bowler Type Total C.Wk C.Slip C.Other LBW Bowled
Left Arm Fast/Med Fast 2 0 1 1 0 0
Right Arm Fast/Med Fast 9 4 0 3 0 2
Right Arm Off Break 4 0 0 2 2 0
Right Arm Leg Break 4 0 1 3 0 0
Left Arm Spin  4 0 0 1 2 1


HOW TO GET HIM OUT:
 

Plan A: It will be hard to get KP out unless Pakistan bowl a very disciplined line and length. KP should be tested against the left arm spinner Abdur Rahman and his arm balls.

Plan B: having being dismissed by Right Arm fast bowlers many times, we would hope Gul to bowl in the right channels to KP - Around off stump on a good length. Create variations by moving some balls into KP (to get LBW and Bowled) while some moving away from him (to get a nick).

Plan C:  Allow Ajmal to attack using his variations from one end & Rahman to contain him from the other end. KP is an attacking player and if his runs dry up, there is a high chance he'd commit a false shot and throw away his wicket.  

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